Central Ayrshire

Current MP

No candidates have been declared for 2029 yet.

Projection	Projected result	Description
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR January 2026	Toss-up SNP	Vote shares: SNP: 28.0%; Ref: 26.0%; Lab: 22.0%; Cons: 12.0%
More in Common January 2026	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 32.0%; SNP: 28.0%; Lab: 16.0%; Cons: 13.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR October 2025	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 29.0%; SNP: 29.0%; Lab: 22.0%
YouGov September 2025	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 29.0%; Lab: 23.0%; SNP: 23.0%
More in Common September 2025	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 29.0%; SNP: 27.0%; Lab: 23.0%; Cons: 11.0%
More in Common July 2025	Lean SNP	Vote shares: SNP: 33.0%; Lab: 24.0%; Ref: 21.0%; Cons: 14.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR June 2025	Toss-up Lab	Vote shares: Lab: 32.0%; SNP: 29.0%; Ref: 16.0%; Cons: 13.0%
YouGov June 2025	Toss-up SNP	Vote shares: SNP: 28.0%; Ref: 25.0%; Lab: 24.0%; Cons: 10.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2025	Toss-up Lab	Vote shares: Lab: 30.0%; SNP: 29.0%; Ref: 17.0%; Cons: 13.0%
More in Common April 2025	Toss-up Lab	Vote shares: Lab: 24.0%; SNP: 23.0%; Cons: 22.0%; Ref: 17.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR Feb 2025	Toss-up SNP	Vote shares: SNP: 30.0%; Lab: 29.0%; Ref: 16.0%; Cons: 13.0%
Focaldata Jan 2025	Toss-up SNP	Vote shares: SNP: 29.0%; Lab: 28.0%; Cons: 18.0%; Ref: 16.0%
More in Common Dec 2024	Safe SNP	Victory chances: SNP: 100.0%

Winning party: Labour
Majority: 6869 (16.58%)
Turnout: 59.67%

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Alan Gemmell	Labour Party	18091	43.7%
Annie McIndoe	Scottish National Party (SNP)	11222	27.1%
David Rocks	Conservative and Unionist Party	6147	14.8%
Kevin Thomas Blades	Reform UK	3420	8.3%
Tom Kerr	Scottish Green Party	1039	2.5%
Elaine Ford	Liberal Democrats	983	2.4%
Louise McDaid	Socialist Labour Party	329	0.8%
Allan MacMillan	Social Democratic Party	188	0.5%

(See the about page for more information about the nature of these results.)

Winning party: Scottish National
Majority: 5304 (11.39%)
Turnout: 66.7%