About this site
This site is developed by Jon Skeet, with ideas from friends and family. (If it breaks, it's my fault. If it's useful, it's down to the inspiration of others.) Please contact me at skeet@pobox.com with any feature requests or feedback.
This site has no financial incentives: there are no affiliate links, no adverts, no subscription-only features.
Much of the rest of this page goes into more technical detail than many users will need. I'm expecting the site to have a higher-than-normal proportion of users who are election geeks, however, and may wish to know exactly what the data means for any given page. If that's you, read on.
Data on the site is obtained from:
- The Democracy Club
- The Office for National Statistics
- Individual seat prediction providers, who have all granted permission for the data to appear on this site
- The notional 2019 results based on 2024 constituencies.
- mySociety
Party colours
Many pages on the site use colours to indicate a party and (when a prediction is involved) the strength of a prediction. The table below shows what to expect across all parties and prediction strengths.
In tables with multiple predictions in each row, hovering your mouse pointer over a prediction will show any more details if there are any. (These are typically predicted vote shares or chances of winning the seat by party.) Tables with a single prediction per row show any prediction details in a separate column.
| Party | Safe | Likely | Lean | Toss-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | Safe Lab | Likely Lab | Lean Lab | Toss-up Lab |
| Conservative | Safe Cons | Likely Cons | Lean Cons | Toss-up Cons |
| Liberal Democrats | Safe LD | Likely LD | Lean LD | Toss-up LD |
| Scottish Nationalist | Safe SNP | Likely SNP | Lean SNP | Toss-up SNP |
| Reform UK | Safe Ref | Likely Ref | Lean Ref | Toss-up Ref |
| Green | Safe Green | Likely Green | Lean Green | Toss-up Green |
| Plaid Cymru | Safe PC | Likely PC | Lean PC | Toss-up PC |
| Sinn Féin | Safe SF | Likely SF | Lean SF | Toss-up SF |
| Democratic Unionist | Safe DUP | Likely DUP | Lean DUP | Toss-up DUP |
| Social Democratic Labour | Safe SDLP | Likely SDLP | Lean SDLP | Toss-up SDLP |
| Ulster Unionist | Safe UUP | Likely UUP | Lean UUP | Toss-up UUP |
| Alliance | Safe Alliance | Likely Alliance | Lean Alliance | Toss-up Alliance |
| Independent | Safe Ind | Likely Ind | Lean Ind | Toss-up Ind |
| Other | Safe Other | Likely Other | Lean Other | Toss-up Other |
Notional 2019 results
In 2023, the "2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies" changed many constituency boundaries. Professors Michael Thrasher and Colin Rallings performed analysis on how the 2019 election results might have been affected by the boundary changes, publishing a notional 2019 result for each new constituency. These results have been widely used by news organisations when compiling statistics such as the direction and magnitude of swing in the 2024 election or in by-elections. These are still notional results of course; aspects such as tactical voting (and inherent inaccuracies due to lack of data) mean that the results can't be considered to be definitive.
On this site, the notional results are always highlighted as being notional. They are associated with the expected winning party rather than any given candidate, given that the votes were attributed by party.
Additionally, for the sake of statistical convenience, notional results for the Brexit Party in 2019 are attributed to Reform UK on this site. (Reform UK didn't "break away" from the Brexit Party or anything like that; the Brexit Party was renamed to Reform UK in 2020.) I hope this doesn't cause too much confusion.
Party consolidation
Various parties are distinct in terms of registrations with the Electoral Commission, but are generally regarded as equivalent for statistical purposes. This site consolidates the parties in the following ways. The ID at the start of each full name (e.g. "") is the Electoral Commission ID, as per the Electoral Commission party register, or a pseudo-ID constructed by The Democracy Club (starting with "joint-party") for joint candidacies.
- Labour:
- PP53: Labour Party
- joint-party:53-119: Labour and Co-operative Party
- Conservative:
- PP52: Conservative and Unionist Party
- PP51: Conservative and Unionist Party
- Liberal Democrats:
- PP90: Liberal Democrats
- Scottish Nationalist:
- PP102: Scottish National Party (SNP)
- Reform UK:
- PP7931: Reform UK
- Green:
- PP63: Green Party
- PP130: Scottish Green Party
- PP305: Green Party
- Plaid Cymru:
- PP77: Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales
- Sinn Féin:
- PP39: Sinn Féin
- Democratic Unionist:
- PP70: Democratic Unionist Party - D.U.P.
- Social Democratic Labour:
- PP55: SDLP (Social Democratic & Labour Party)
- Ulster Unionist:
- PP83: Ulster Unionist Party
- Alliance:
- PP103: Alliance - Alliance Party of Northern Ireland
Additionally, the Speaker of the House, when seeking re-election, is counted within the "Other" group of parties, as they cannot vote with the party they are naturally associated with.
Privacy
This site does not accept or store any data, beyond regular HTTP logs containing IP addresses. This site does not use any cookies or any other tracking devices. Local storage may be used for some features, to remember preferences.