Hereford and South Herefordshire

Current MP

No candidates have been declared for 2029 yet.

Projection	Projected result	Description
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR January 2026	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 40.0%; Cons: 35.0%
More in Common January 2026	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 36.0%; Cons: 29.0%; Lab: 15.0%; Green: 10.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR October 2025	Likely Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 41.0%; Cons: 25.0%; Lab: 14.0%
YouGov September 2025	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 31.0%; Cons: 24.0%; LD: 15.0%; Lab: 14.0%; Green: 12.0%
More in Common September 2025	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 37.0%; Cons: 25.0%; Lab: 14.0%; LD: 14.0%
More in Common July 2025	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 32.0%; Cons: 29.0%; Lab: 17.0%; LD: 14.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR June 2025	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 37.0%; Cons: 24.0%; Lab: 18.0%; LD: 12.0%
YouGov June 2025	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 30.0%; Cons: 25.0%; Lab: 19.0%; LD: 13.0%; Green: 11.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2025	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 30.0%; Cons: 29.0%; Lab: 19.0%; LD: 12.0%
More in Common April 2025	Toss-up Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 32.0%; Ref: 27.0%; Lab: 20.0%; LD: 11.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR Feb 2025	Toss-up Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 32.0%; Ref: 27.0%; Lab: 18.0%; LD: 11.0%
Focaldata Jan 2025	Toss-up Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 31.0%; Ref: 26.0%; Lab: 22.0%; LD: 12.0%
More in Common Dec 2024	Safe Cons	Victory chances: Cons: 100.0%

Winning party: Conservative
Majority: 1279 (2.80%)
Turnout: 63.12%

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Jesse Norman	Conservative and Unionist Party	14871	32.6%
Joe Emmett	Labour Party	13592	29.8%
Nigel Ely	Reform UK	8395	18.4%
Dan Powell	Liberal Democrats	5325	11.7%
Diana Toynbee	Green Party	3175	7.0%
Mark Weaden	Independent	214	0.5%

(See the about page for more information about the nature of these results.)

Winning party: Conservative
Majority: 19321 (41.76%)
Turnout: 65%